By Juarez Leão
We have reached the final quarter of 2026 with interest rates still high and signs that sales are losing momentum. My assessment is that Black Friday and Christmas will offer opportunities, but results will vary considerably across companies and sectors. The ability to understand consumers, preserve cash, and execute effectively will be decisive. Waiting for a broad market recovery is not a sufficient basis for planning.
In my view, consumers are becoming more discerning about where they spend their money. They compare prices, convenience, quality, and trust. Recent surveys indicate that consumers intend to use artificial intelligence to check offers and evaluate brands during Black Friday. This calls for a clear value proposition. Companies need to understand why customers should choose them and deliver on that promise at every touchpoint.
Black Friday will be an important test of management. I believe the campaign should begin by defining the desired outcome: generating cash, moving inventory, acquiring customers, or increasing purchase frequency. Each objective requires a different mix of products, prices, and investment. Indiscriminate discounting can boost revenue while undermining profitability. Companies need to understand the margin remaining after advertising, shipping, commissions, returns, and financing costs.
I also consider it essential to plan November and December together. Bringing a Christmas purchase forward at a lower margin may improve one month’s figures without creating value for the quarter. Inventory, replenishment, and staffing need to reflect this approach. Customers acquired through promotions should become part of an ongoing relationship strategy. The quality of a Black Friday campaign is also reflected in repeat purchases and cash flow in the following months.
I see room for tangible improvements in the shopping experience. Customers want to browse on their phones, communicate through WhatsApp, try products in-store, and enjoy convenient delivery. It is up to the company to connect these stages. Physical stores become more relevant when they provide knowledgeable service, opportunities to try products, and effective problem-solving. Commissions and targets need to encourage this integration; consumers ultimately notice internal competition over who gets credit for a sale.
My recent role as curator of the ABF delegation to China reinforced a conviction: the speed of learning and disciplined execution are competitive advantages. We need to shorten the distance between an idea and its implementation. This requires adapting what we learn to the realities of each business, with clear priorities, controlled tests, and well-defined criteria for scaling what works.
Artificial intelligence should be part of this agenda, with clearly defined problems and measurable outcomes: improving demand forecasting, reducing stockouts, supporting sales teams, and making customer interactions more relevant. I recommend starting with a few applications, each with clear ownership and performance indicators. Reliable data and trained teams are part of the investment. Buying technology without preparing the organization reduces the likelihood of realizing its potential.
This places leadership and governance at the center of the discussion. We need executives who combine commercial vision, a firm grasp of the numbers, openness to learning, and the ability to mobilize people. When selecting and developing leaders, I would pay particular attention to these competencies. Boards should challenge assumptions, monitor execution, and demand progress on recurring unresolved issues. A topic that repeatedly returns to the agenda without progress calls for a focused discussion about priorities, resources, and accountability.
Looking ahead to 2027, I see opportunities for companies that can improve productivity, strengthen their differentiation, and deepen customer relationships. Budgets need to make clear where growth will come from, which capabilities will be required, and how much capital will be needed. Setting higher targets while retaining the same structure and the same problems is unlikely to produce a different result.
The priority at year-end is to use the season’s strong sales momentum to build a better-prepared company. Sell well now, learn from day-to-day operations, and enter 2027 with clear choices. That is how I understand the connection between strategy, leadership, and value creation.
